Sunday, December 18, 2011

Gingrich: The Republicans' Congress Worst Fear

The right-wing citizens of America seem to be edging towards Newt Gingrich as their presidential hopeful, but their other elective representatives are running scared. Plenty of Republican standards have spoken out against the ex-speaker's ability to lead the country, and his list of endorsements trails behind those of his fellow candidates.
Now, besides this dismal position, a more lingering problem faces Gingrich. The economic troubles and conservative backlash, plus the 2008 elections, have given many Republicans the hope that Obama can be voted out of office. However, while the fundamental caucus voters have been drawn to Gingrich's hearty rhetoric, other strategists note that his speeches will drive away the moderates in the country. Not to mention, enough previous employees and colleagues have described him as confrontational as much with his allies and his enemies. In addition, enough average voters remember his ethics trial and marital infidelites from back in the nineties, and aren't ready to switch back from the forward motion of recent elections.
The self interest of fellow Republicans fear that if indeed he is elected, or even become the nominee, he will alienate independent voters that will, in turn, vote them out of Congress. Gingrich's messages may correspond with the GOP's general message, but most people see him as a good man to keep in the backround and churn out ideas, not become the front guy for the movement. Since the House of Representatives and the Senate have the real power in Washington, keeping a good face on the Republican party might be of paramount importance.

Paul Kane, Washington Post. 12/18/2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-wary-of-newt-gingrich-presidential-nomination/2011/12/13/gIQA5yViuO_story.html

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Last Debate Leaves No Guidance for the Caucus

Thursday night had the last Primary Republican Debate of 2011, but it didn't leave any lasting impressions. Gingrich, as the new front runner, was sort of the star of the show. His past and principles were attacked, but held is ground in the most amicable way possible. Bachmann seemed particularly keen to knock him of his game, but it proved in vain. As he now leads the polls in Iowa, it would have been nice for her to steal some of his support.
And that is what this debate was truly about, getting as many polling numbers as possible before the candidates are forced to hit the road and become entrenched in every city or small town Iowa has to offer. The first caucus is held January 3rd in what is briefly the most important state in America. The results can make or break the political ambitions of any presidential hopeful.
Currently, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney lead the polls in Iowa. Not surprisingly, these men got both the most speaking time in the debates, and the most challenges. Paul's libertarian views are closer to Tea Party mentalities than most appreciate, but conservatives still easily attack him for his social and foreign policy tactics. However, as with every other debate so far, the collective scapegoat was Romney. Everyone comes at him to both bring him down as the consistent opponent, and to reiterate their own policies.
When closing arguments commenced, it was obvious how much spirit each speech was trying to condense into the last few minutes. It was the final chance for a candidate to reach a large number of voters, and appear the most coherent and intelligent. Still, any Iowan Republican didn't need to hear these final appeals, or watch the debate at all. Everything said had been heard about twelve times before.

Jason Clayworth. 12/16/2011. Final Pre-Caucus Clash Provides No Victors. Des Moines Register
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/16/final-pre-caucus-clash-produces-no-victors/

Friday, December 16, 2011

For Richer or Poorer

Though it's hard to get a accurate number, Mitt Romney has an estimated new worth of over 200 million. The median net worth for individuals in America is about 120,000, but this time ol' Mitt hasn't offended the 'average American'. Instead, he has made a mistake that will either cost him now, or much likely later. He has offended the poor, or least the pundits claim he has.
At a town hall meeting, Romney made a statement to help the clueless voters understand the difference between Medicare and Medicaid. The latter, he said, is designed to help the poor. He didn't say less fortunate, disabled, struggling or lower income families. He said poor, and in a tone that seemed to reference an outside group that wasn't at his speech.
Now, in reality, Medicaid primarily helps the poor. In politically correct terms, it supplements insurance incomes, but goodness an average American can't understand what that means. A casual statement like Romney's is an accurate way to differentiate between multiple government aide programs, however, it is likely to be misconstrued by his political opponents in the primaries, and possibly the general election.
Most primary republican voters aren't from lower income families, and many of them label the Medicaide program already as assistance that borders too closely to socialism. Furthermore, the people already supporting Romney aren't likely to be all of sudden turned off by his elitist rich guy mannerisms. If this comment comes back to hurt him, it will be when Obama rallies his troops again, and Democrats can certaintly use this to their advantage with a statement like: "this out of touch conservative who doesn't care if everybody who doesn't make a million dollars dies in the street."
In conclusion, yes Romney is out of touch, no this comment isn't offensive if you're not too sensitive. But still be prepared to hear about it on 24 hour news networks.

Source: John King, 12/16/2011

Monday, December 12, 2011

The Most Amusing Reality on TV: The Republican Debates

C-SPAN is an incredible television anomaly. It stays on the air despite its ratings being lower than pretty much every reality TV show on TLC. The Republican primary debates are doing slightly better, since cable news channels use typical television tactics. Between the hyped up intros and overly patriotic backdrops, the most successful ratings on a republican debate are still below Dancing With the Stars.
Mostly due to the 'colorful personalities' of the candidates, a lot of the debates so far have been able to produce as much ridicule as actual content, and its participants don't seem bothered with laughing along. However, they seem to draw the line at allowing pop culture directly into their respectable discourse, even at the hope of actually peaking the nation's interest as much as Toddlers in Tiaras does. Donald Trump recently announced that he plans to host a republican debate later this month in Iowa, except it won't be much of anything if it occurs, since only Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have agreed to attend. Apparently, the other candidates consider attending 'beneath the office of the presidency and flies in the face of that office's history and dignity.' This concept does not apply to riding around the country in a bus with their face on it.
Still, allowing Donald Trump to be more than just the host of The Apprentice might be too much of a gimmick, even for candidates hungry for media attention. The various politicians are trying to seem down to earth and relatable to the country, but also want to avoid scrutiny. In an age when every misstep they take in a debate goes viral within hours, that might be too much to hope for. The Republican candidates can avoid reality TV as much as they want, doesn't mean their not in one. Except in their case, many members of Celebrity Apprentice had more name recognition.
It's worth noting that the power of firing people may have gone to Trump's toupee. He says he might consider running himself if the Republican nominee fails to impress, and would intend to take the job.

December 2nd, 2011. Jeremy W. Peters. 'Trump to Moderate Republican Debate' New York Times
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/02/trump-to-moderate-republican-debate/?scp=2&sq=donald%20trump&st=cse

The Marriage Pledge

Being the Republican nominee means being nice to Iowa. Being nice to Iowa means getting along with its evangelical voters. Getting along with them now means singing a binding legal document to never support gay marriage and, in a less direct way, oppose abortion.
Setting aside the implications of a interest group getting candidates to sign obligatory pledges even before nomination, there's a smaller battle being fought. Only Bachmann, Perry and Santorum have signed the pledge, but Newt Gingrich has apparently worked around agreeing to the strong language in the bill, by simply endorsing its contents. Given that his own marital past is hardly sanctimonious, he might have considered a little more courtship towards conservative voters who have recently helped him rise to the top of the polls.
Socially divisive issues haven't been the main focus of the debates so far, because the economic crisis is what all Americans are worried about regardless of their political views. Still, its important to note that these types of deals are being made, so whoever gets the nomination might have some debts to the activists that helped them get there. In the general election, extremists views on either the left or the right won't help. Obama has been notably silent on issues like abortion and gay rights, and any republican candidate might think to do the same. Winning the primary by any means necessary might come back to haunt a person that goes up against the President, whose moderate views won't so easily be targeted.


December 12th, 2011. Susan Saulny. Gingrich Endorses 'Marriage Pledge' New York Times.com
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/gingrich-endorses-marriage-pledge/?scp=2&sq=gingrich&st=cse